What is happening. Why. What is most likely next. What changes it.
Chresma is an evidence-governed outcome reasoning system. It measures reality, reads history, models trajectories, explains interventions, and updates its beliefs when outcomes resolve. Every answer carries its sources, alternatives, calibrated confidence, and lineage. Not a chatbot. Not a search layer. An auditable decision-intelligence platform.
Free to start · How Chresma works · Measured track record
The record
This is how often Chresma has been right.
Measured against outcomes that actually happened, published before you sign up, misses included. Where a number has not been earned yet, you see an em dash — never a zero and never a sample figure.
What Chresma does
One question in. A defensible answer out.
Chresma brings prediction, evidence, knowledge, reasoning and learning into a single answer you can interrogate.
Prediction
Ask what is likely to happen. Chresma returns the outcome, the alternatives worth planning for, and a calibrated confidence — never a single unexplained number.
Evidence
Every answer names the sources it used, how recent they are and how much they were trusted. You can open any one of them.
Knowledge
Bring your own data. Chresma folds it into what it already knows, so answers get sharper on the questions that matter to you.
Reasoning
See the path from question to answer: what was considered, what conflicted, and what changed the conclusion.
Learning
Record what actually happened and Chresma recalibrates. Accuracy is measured in public, not asserted.
Cross-domain
Markets, health, energy, climate, sport and your own datasets — one reasoning layer across all of them.
How Chresma thinks
Five steps from a question to an answer you can check
Chresma never answers from intuition. It answers from what it can show you.
- 01
Knowledge
What Chresma already holds about the entities and the domain.
- 02
Evidence
What can be verified right now, from sources with a known track record.
- 03
Reasoning
Competing explanations weighed, contradictions surfaced rather than hidden.
- 04
Prediction
A calibrated outcome with alternatives and honest uncertainty.
- 05
Learning
The real result is recorded and feeds back into the next answer.
Chresma in action
The kinds of questions Chresma is built for
Each answer arrives with its evidence, its alternatives and the conditions that would change it.
“Will regional peak electricity demand exceed last summer?”
“How likely is a Category 3+ landfall on the US Gulf coast this season?”
“Is this supplier likely to miss its next delivery window?”
Why trust Chresma
Confidence you can audit
Trust is not a claim on a homepage. It is evidence, governance and measured accuracy you can inspect yourself.
Explainable by default
Every answer carries its evidence, its reasoning and its confidence. If Chresma cannot support a claim, it says so instead of guessing.
Governed change
What Chresma believes cannot be quietly rewritten. Material changes are reviewed, versioned and reversible.
Accuracy in public
Resolved predictions are scored and published. Calibration is measured, not claimed.
Your data stays yours
Private data is isolated to your workspace, exportable at any time and deletable on request.
Enterprise ready
Shared workspaces, roles, audit trails and governance for teams that must show their working.
It improves with use
Recorded outcomes retrain confidence, so the answers you rely on get better over time.
Plans
Start free. Go deeper when you need to.
Every tier keeps the same evidence-first answer. Higher tiers open more depth, more collaboration and more control.
Individual
Ask questions, see the evidence, track how your answers resolved.
- Predictions with evidence
- Your own history and outcomes
- Upload your own data
Professional
Depth for analysts: calibration, reasoning traces and cross-domain comparison.
- Calibration and benchmarks
- Reasoning and evidence traces
- Scenario comparison
Enterprise
Organisational intelligence: shared workspaces, governance and audit.
- Team workspaces and roles
- Governance and approvals
- Audit and compliance evidence
Ask Chresma something that hasn’t happened yet.
Create an account and get your first governed forecast — with its evidence — in minutes.